Global Economic Outlook 2024

 Table 1 displays the real GDP growth rate and inflation rate for the selected regions. China’ real GDP growth rate is much higher compared to developed countries. I expect the trend to continue for a long time but gradually converge to the OECD level. Consequently, the nominal growth rate 3% for terminal period is used in the valuation for Chinese EVs as China’s domestic market is expected to be the primary battleground for these vehicles. This rate is somewhat conservative, being lower than the global average, due to several uncertainties.  Domestic consumption remains low and the real estate sector poses a significant risk to China’s economy. Additionally, China’s stance on the geopolitical conflicts between Ukraine and Russia has strained its relationship with western countries.  

Table 1 Real GDP growth rate and inflation

Source: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org